Ceasefire News Leaked Ahead of Time? Large Polymarket Bets on Outcome Before Trump's Tweet
Original Title: "Was Trump's Tweet Preceded by a Leak? Polymarket Unusual Bets Point to U.S.-Iran Ceasefire Before Next Week"
Original Source: GoldenTen Data
On Monday morning local time, U.S. President Trump posted on Truth Social, stating that the U.S. and Iran had engaged in a "very good and productive dialogue" to resolve the Middle East war.
However, before Trump publicly announced this news, several accounts on the prediction market platform Polymarket had already placed large bets that the war would end this week.
Ten new accounts recently opened on Polymarket invested thousands of dollars in the "U.S.-Iran Ceasefire" market, betting on a ceasefire by March 31st or April 15th; these accounts collectively wagered around $160,000, and if a ceasefire is achieved by the end of the month, they will profit over $1 million.
These accounts were identified last Sunday by user Lirrato on Platform X and were further disseminated by the account PolymarketHistory. After Trump's Monday post, the unrealized gains of these 10 accounts have exceeded $300,000.

One account, in particular, named "NOTHINGEVERFRICKINGHAPPENS," has attracted attention. This account was registered in late February, with its first two transactions being bets of $7,600 that the U.S. would strike Iran before February 28 and $11,283 betting on a strike before March 1, totaling profits of over $85,000. Now, this account has further wagered $8,005 on a U.S.-Iran ceasefire by March 31 and another $15,614 on a ceasefire by April 15, both bets already unrealized gains of over $30,000.
The scale of the bets, timing, and past performance have led to speculation from the public whether these Polymarket accounts belong to insiders—individuals with connections to the U.S. and Iran political spheres who have access to undisclosed information on diplomatic progress.
The prediction market has previously been embroiled in insider trading scandals. A recent example was a Polymarket trader betting that the U.S. would take military action against Venezuela, earning over $400,000; shortly after, the U.S. announced the capture of Venezuelan strongman Nicolás Maduro. Its competitor Kalshi recently also banned two insider trading users, marking the platform's first public investigation into insider trading.
On Monday, Polymarket announced an update to its insider trading policy, explicitly prohibiting three types of behavior: trading on stolen confidential information, trading on illegal insider information, and trading when a user has the ability to influence the outcome of an event.
Neal Kumar, Chief Legal Officer of Polymarket, stated: "Market integrity depends on clear rules, and the new rules provide all participants with clear expectations and demonstrate the compliance framework we have built."
This rule adjustment may indicate that Polymarket will follow Kalshi's lead in launching an insider trading investigation. While it is not yet certain whether the accounts betting on a US-Iran ceasefire are insiders, the platform's investigation is expected to uncover the truth.
Before Trump's Announcement, S&P and Crude Oil Futures Also Saw Unusual Volume
Additionally, minutes before Trump's market-moving social media post, both S&P 500 futures and crude oil futures experienced unusual trading volume.
Around 6:50 AM New York time on Monday, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) traded S&P 500 E-mini futures saw a sharp and isolated volume spike, breaking the otherwise subdued pre-market trading activity. The early hours are typically characterized by low liquidity, making this sudden surge in volume one of the largest at that time of the trading day.
Crude oil markets saw a similar pattern. WTI Crude Oil May futures experienced a notable uptick in trading activity around the same time, with a significant volume spike disrupting the calm market conditions.
About 15 minutes later, at 7:05 AM, Trump's statement regarding delaying a strike on an Iranian power plant immediately triggered a risk asset rally, sending S&P 500 futures surging over 2.5% before the open, while WTI Crude Oil futures plummeted nearly 6% after the announcement.
The synchronicity of the stock and oil markets' early trading volume spikes raised eyebrows among traders—especially as the surge in volume occurred without a clear catalyst.
Early futures markets typically exhibit lower liquidity, making these brief surges in activity more pronounced than during regular trading hours. Nevertheless, these trades raised eyebrows, as anyone who bought a large volume of stock futures and simultaneously sold or shorted oil futures at that moment reaped significant profits within minutes.
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME Group) both declined to comment.
Algorithmic trading strategies and macro-driven strategies may also contribute to rapid cross-asset fund flows in early trading without a single identifiable catalyst.
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